Analyze Zay Flowers's matchup for week 9
Jayden Reed draws a Miami defense that bleeds yards to slot receivers (4.5 YAC/REC vs. 2+ WR sets) and is missing star CB Jalen Ramsey (knee), giving Kamryn Sparks a chance to shine.
Miami is #26 in EPA per drop-back vs. 3-WR sets, and has given up 9 completions of 1st-and-10+ air yards to slot targets over the last three games. Reed leads Packers’ 11-personnel routes run percentage (94% last 3 weeks) and averages 2.38 yards per route against Cover-3/6 coverage shells used by the Dolphins 62% of the time. The expected return of Jordan Love (thumb) should boost the offense’s efficiency and Kamara’s weekly floor (3+ catches in 8/9 games).
PPR WR15 over last 4 games (16.3 FPG).
Reception prop set at 6.5 (-120) and FanDuel Sportsbook has his receiving yards o/u 56.5 (-110).