Analyze Tyrone Tracy's matchup for week 9
Chase has cleared 100 yards in four straight meetings with Pittsburgh, faces a banged-up secondary that just surrendered 298 yards to the Colts, and remains the focal point of an ascending Bengals passing attack—fire him up as a top-5 WR this week.
The Steelers’ pass defense has quietly cratered, ranking 30th in EPA per drop-back over the last month while allowing the most explosive passes (20+ yards) during that span. With top CB Joey Porter Jr. limited by a knee issue and slot corner Chandon Sullivan in concussion protocol, Chase will see a steady diet of rookie Beanie Bishop and veteran James Pierre—two depth pieces who have combined to allow 19 catches on 24 targets for 272 yards and two TDs the past two weeks.
Since Week 12 Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards (482) and deep-ball TDs (4) while commanding a 32% target share and 45% of Cincinnati’s air yards; he’s posted 5-113-1, 11-124-1, 10-100-0, and 8-115-2 lines in his last four divisional dates with Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh’s once-feared defense has morphed into a boom-or-bust unit that blitzes at the league’s highest rate (43%) yet generates the sixth-lowest pressure rate when opponents keep six or seven in to protect. That aggressive, leaky approach plays directly into Chase’s wheelhouse: he averages 18.3 yards per catch versus the Steelers, and 62% of his career touchdowns against them have come on plays where Cincinnati faced five or more rushers. Expect Joe Burrow to exploit off-coverage looks with quick slants and hitches early before uncorking deep posts and go-balls off play-action once Pittsburgh safeties start sneaking into the box to contain Joe Mixon. The Steelers have allowed a league-high 15 completions of 40+ yards this season; Chase owns half of the Bengals’ 20 longest receptions in 2023. Even in a windy late-December night game, the combination of Chase’s red-hot usage, Pittsburgh’s coverage injuries, and the Bengals’ playoff desperation sets up another ceiling performance. Sit him only if you own three top-12 WRs—otherwise lock him into lineups as a top-five fantasy receiver.