Analyze Tyler Allgeier's matchup for week 9
Allgeier has devolved into a touchdown-or-bust backup who’s averaging 3.4 YPC and just 4–6 touches per game; facing the league’s second-stingiest run defense (76.0 yds, 3.5 YPC, 2 TD allowed) while the Falcons are 6-point road dogs, he carries virtually zero floor and should be benched in all formats.
New England’s front seven has been elite all year, ranking 2nd in rushing yards per game and yards per carry while allowing only two rushing scores. With Atlanta projected to trail, the Falcons will funnel pass work through Bijan Robinson, leaving Allgeier—already capped at a handful of touches—staring at a worst-case script for a touchdown-dependent backup.
After opening the season with modest flex appeal, Allgeier’s role has collapsed: 61 carries for 207 yards (3.4 YPC) and a minuscule 4-4-1 line in Week 8. Four goal-line touchdowns mask the erosion; his snap share, carries and yards after contact have fallen in four straight weeks.
The underlying metrics scream regression. A 3.4 YPC behind a middling Atlanta line becomes untenable against a Patriots defense surrendering just 3.5 YPC and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Negative game script exacerbates the problem—when Atlanta falls behind, Bijan soaks up passing-down work, capping Allgeier at 5-8 snaps in the second half of recent losses. Touchdown equity is his only path to relevance, yet New England has permitted two rushing scores in eight games and owns the league’s second-best red-zone rush success rate. Even if the Falcons reach the 5-yard line, the split backfield means a 50-50 lottery at best, making Allgeier a high-variance dart with a sub-5-point floor. In 12-team leagues, priority handcuffs like Tyjae Spears or change-of-pace backs on better offenses provide safer ceilings this week.