Analyze Trevor Lawrence's matchup for week 9
Etienne’s three-game slide (40 rush yds/G) sets up a classic post-bye buy-low as Vegas has quietly leaked rushing production when teams stick with it—fire him up as an RB2 with RB1 upside.
The Raiders’ box-score run defense looks stout (70.5 yds/G, zero TDs), but game scripts have limited opponent attempts; when committed, teams have found room. Jacksonville exits the bye emphasizing ground re-establishment, and Etienne owns 80 % of backfield touches.
After opening with 98.5 rush yds/G and a 143-yard explosion in Week 1, Etienne has cratered to 40 yds/G over the last three, bottoming out at 44 yds on eight carries versus L.A. in Week 7.
The narrative arc is textbook post-bye buy-low: a talent-backed workload that hasn’t yielded results meets a defensive profile begging for negative regression. Las Vegas has yet to surrender a rushing score, but that zero-TD clip is historically unsustainable and owes much to opponents opting to carve up a permissive secondary instead. Expect Liam Coen to ride his rested line and feature Etienne early—look for 18-20 touches, including 3-4 targets, against a front seven that’s allowed 4.7 yds per carry when offenses stay balanced. The Jags’ offensive line is healthier after the week off, and Etienne’s burst numbers remain elite, so the 0.59 projected TD feels light; one crease on a goal-line carry could flip his entire fantasy week. In season-long formats, attach yourself to volume plus positive touchdown variance rather than recency bias. Bench him only if your alternative is a locked-in top-eight back; otherwise trust the process and plug him in as a high-floor, high-ceiling RB2.