Analyze Travis Kelce's matchup for week 9
Kelce’s elite target share (8.6 per game) is crushed by a Bills unit that’s No. 2 vs TEs (4.73 FPPG, 1 TD allowed). Historical duds (2-19-0 in last meeting) plus double-teams on 70% of routes make him a low-floor, low-ceiling sit in a must-win fantasy week.
Buffalo’s Cover-2 scheme led by Matt Milano has held TEs to 32 yards per game and one score all year; they doubled Kelce into oblivion in last year’s Week 11 rematch and will force Mahomes to win outside. Kansas City’s likely run-heavy, WR-centric plan turns Kelce into a decoy, not a focal point.
Back-end TE1 numbers—37-474-3 on the year—saved by 6-99-1 in Week 8; three sub-50-yard duds and zero TDs in five of eight games show the cliff is real.
The underlying metrics scream fade: Buffalo allows the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (4.73 per game) and has surrendered only one TE touchdown through eight weeks. They accomplish this by bracketing elite tight ends with a linebacker-safety combo and flooding the middle of the field, a tactic that limited Kelce to a measly two catches for 19 yards in their last meeting. With the Bills likely deploying double-teams on roughly 70% of Kelce’s routes, his signature yards-after-catch juice evaporates, and his red-zone opportunities dry up in a scheme specifically designed to force Mahomes to beat them on the perimeter.
From a game-script standpoint, Kansas City has every incentive to lean on its revitalized ground attack and outside receivers rather than force-feed Kelce into traffic. Buffalo’s defensive line isn’t the fearsome unit of past years, so the Chiefs can stay balanced, shorten the game, and avoid the turnovers that come with contested middle-of-field throws. That approach turns Kelce into a decoy for long stretches, capping both his target ceiling and touchdown probability. Even his sturdy 8.6 targets-per-game average is at risk when offensive coordinator Matt Nagy identifies softer match-ups for Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and the running backs in the flat.
Fantasy managers must weigh name value against objective reality. In redraft leagues you can likely stream Dalton Kincaid versus Miami, Sam LaPorta versus the Giants, or Trey McBride versus Chicago and expect a safer floor plus equal or better upside. Kelce’s Hall-of-Fame pedigree keeps his name in lights, but the combination of opponent strength, historical under-performance, and projected game plan makes him a clear sit in standard TE-premium formats and an avoid in DFS cash games. Only desperate GPP players hunting sub-5% ownership should even consider rolling the dice on a vintage blow-up that, at age 36 and against this specific defense, looks increasingly improbable.