Analyze Travis Hunter's matchup for week 9
After a 14-target, 24-point eruption in Week 7, Hunter faces the league’s worst secondary while Brian Thomas Jr. nurses a shoulder issue—he’s a volume-locked WR3 with WR1 upside.
Las Vegas fields the NFL’s 32nd-ranked pass defense, a bottom-three cornerback group that just signed 33-year-old Tyler Lockett out of desperation. Hunter’s newfound 29.8% target share and 87% snap rate align perfectly with a Raiders unit hemorrhaging big plays and extra possessions via Geno Smith’s league-high interception rate.
Two straight 75%+ snap weeks culminated in 8-101-1 on 14 targets—his first double-digit fantasy day and clear ascension to co-alpha alongside an injured Thomas.
Hunter’s rookie timeline flipped in Week 7 when the Jaguars finally treated him as a true WR1, feeding him 14 of 47 pass attempts and letting him stay on the field for 87% of snaps. That usage spike coincides with Brian Thomas Jr.’s shoulder ailment and mounting staff frustration over drops, locking Hunter into a target floor he’s never had. The Raiders’ secondary is historically charitable—dead last in yards per attempt (8.2), explosive pass rate (23%), and passer rating allowed (116.4). With Geno Smith turning the ball over on 5.6% of attempts and Vegas coming off a bye still devoid of starting-caliber corners, expect Jacksonville to lean pass-heavy and funnel looks to their hot hand. Even modest regression from Hunter’s 57% catch rate still yields 8-plus targets against a team that coughs up 18.4 fantasy points per game to outside wideouts. The floor sits at 8-12 points in PPR, but another 20-point ceiling is well within range if the Lawrence-Hunter connection picks up where it left off.