Analyze Travis Etienne's matchup for week 9
Etienne is trending up after back-to-back 100-yard games, draws a Packers front seven that’s allowing 4.6 YPC over the last month, and should see 18-plus touches in a game Jacksonville is favored to win—fire him up as a high-end RB2 with upside.
Green Bay enters Week 9 ranked 18th in rushing DVOA and has already surrendered eight TDs to opposing backs. With the Jaguars’ passing game banged-up, Etienne projects for a 65–70% snap share against a Packers front that plays a light box on early downs. The forecast is calm and the game-script should stay neutral, keeping Jacksonville in its preferred run-first approach.
After a slow September, Etienne has rattled off 237 rushing yards and three TDs the last two weeks while adding five catches for 42 yards—his elite burst is back and the coaching staff is finally leaning on him in the red zone.
The biggest arrow pointing up for Etienne is usage: he’s handled 82% of the Jags’ RB carries the last two weeks and seen 14 targets over that span, numbers that scream every-down workhorse. Green Bay’s linebackers have struggled with gap discipline all year—De’Vondre Campbell is on IR and rookie Edgerrin Cooper still grades below average in run-defense PFF grade—so the explosive cuts that Etienne showed on his 62-yard house call last week should be available again. Expect 18–20 carries and 4–5 targets; if Jacksonville reaches the red zone more than twice, he’s the clear candidate for goal-line work.
From a game-script standpoint, Jacksonville is a 4.5-point favorite with an implied total of 25 points, meaning positive script and plenty of fourth-quarter clock-killing opportunities. The Packers’ pass rush is top-ten in pressure rate, so Trevor Lawrence’s ankle issue could push even more volume to the ground game. Etienne’s pass-pro has improved (only two blown blitz pickups the last month), keeping him on the field on likely passing downs and boosting his PPR floor.
The lone concern is touchdown regression—he’s scored in three straight and the Packers have allowed just one rushing TD in their last two games—but the volume and efficiency metrics outweigh that. In 12-team leagues Etienne is a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside this week; keep him in lineups over boom-or-bust options like Alvin Kamara or Joe Mixon.