Analyze Travies Etienne's matchup for week 9
Etienne’s 5.6-point average over the last three weeks is scary, but Las Vegas has leaked a rushing TD in seven straight games and just endured a turnover-heavy bye for Jacksonville to prepare; treat him as a volatile RB2/FLEX who should flirt with 14 PPR points if the expected positive game script holds.
The Raiders’ run defense ranks a middling 13th in yards allowed yet has given up at least one rushing score in every game this year and multiple TDs three times, while their league-worst 12 turnovers through seven weeks should keep Jacksonville in run-friendly scripts. Add in a post-bye recharge for Etienne and a home crowd desperate to re-establish the ground game, and the matchup screams bounce-back even as his recent efficiency has cratered.
Over the last three contests Etienne has mustered only 120 yards on 32 carries (3.75 YPC), zero touchdowns, and 8-48 receiving, sinking him to RB22 in weekly flex rankings and turning the backfield into a committee with explosive rookie Bhayshul Tuten.
The narrative arc is simple: a once-featured back has lost momentum thanks to poor blocking, negative game scripts, and the coaching staff’s willingness to ride the hot hand in Tuten. His 4.9-yard career rushing average has plummeted to 3.8 this season, and his missed-tackle rate is down nearly 25 %, indicating that the burst that defined his 2023 breakout simply isn’t there right now. OC Press Taylor’s shift to more 11-personnel and outside zone has also limited Etienne’s designed cut-back lanes, forcing him into crowded interior runs where he’s been stuffed on 28 % of carries since Week 4.
But matchups matter, and the Raiders offer a soft landing. Opponents have gouged them for 4.6 yards per carry when running between the tackles—precisely where Jacksonville wants to re-establish rhythm—and their nickel package surrenders the sixth-most RB receptions, reviving Etienne’s PPR floor through dump-offs. With Geno Smith’s league-leading interception rate setting up short fields, Jacksonville projects for 27-30 rush attempts and a 55 % run rate in the first three quarters, numbers that should push Etienne toward 16-18 touches even in a timeshare. The Raiders have also allowed 11 runs of 15-plus yards the last four weeks, so one explosive carry could flip his entire fantasy line. temper expectations because the split with Tuten is real—Etienne’s snap share has fallen under 60 % for three straight games and the staff has telegraphed a red-zone package featuring the rookie’s superior power. Still, touchdown regression is on Etienne’s side: he’s handled 68 % of the RB carries inside the 10-yard line, and Las Vegas has conceded a score on 46 % of such attempts. Expect modest volume efficiency (≈4.0 YPC) and a 50-50 shot at a rushing TD, translating to 13-15 PPR points—high-end RB2 production that clears his recent baseline and gives desperate fantasy managers a viable bye-week plug-in.