Analyze Samaje Perine's matchup for week 9
Perine’s 2025-best Week 8 line was a classic outlier; he’s still the clear 1B to Chase Brown, touchdown-less on the year, and projects to low-double-digit touches at home versus a middling Bears front. Bench him in standard-sized leagues and treat him only as an emergency PPR flex or handcuff.
Cincinnati hosts Chicago in Week 9 with an offensive line that’s finally creating creases and a Bears defense that’s allowed the 6th-most RB receptions. The environment is plus—indoor track, crowd noise, and a Flacco-led rhythm offense—but usage remains the problem: Brown dominates early downs and goal work, leaving Perine scattered third-down snaps and change-of-pace carries. Even in a script that could feature more clock-killing if Cincinnati builds a lead, Perine’s touch ceiling sits around 10–12, making him entirely touchdown- or reception-reliant for usable fantasy output.
Exploded for more fantasy points in Week 8 than he had scored all season combined, but underlying usage stayed flat—he’s still averaging 5.7 touches per game and zero TDs on the year.
Week 8’s spike was driven by perfect game-script storms: positive game flow, 91% snap share in the fourth quarter, and a season-high five receptions as the Bengals salted away a rare comfortable win. Those conditions are unlikely to replicate with Brown healthy; Perine’s seasonal snap rate remains 34% and his red-zone opportunities are virtually nil. The Bears, meanwhile, have tightened their early-down run defense since acquiring a new interior defender at the trade deadline, but they still concede 7.2 receptions per game to enemy backs—boosting Perine’s floor slightly in full-PPR setups. Still, without an injury to Brown, his projected 6–8 carries and 3–4 targets yield a modest 7–9 point PPR expectation with a ceiling under 15. That range sits squarely in the RB4/flex wasteland where almost any starting wide receiver or tight end offers higher stability. Fantasy managers should resist recency bias, leave him on benches, and only deploy him if desperate during bye weeks or if Brown is declared out on game-day.