Analyze Rico Dowdle's matchup for week 9
Dowdle draws a plus matchup versus a leaky Falcons run defense that ranks bottom-five in fantasy points allowed to RBs, and with the Cowboys finally treating him as the lead back over an ineffective Ezekiel Elliott, he offers a safe 12-15-touch floor plus receiving juice that plays especially well in PPR. Fire him up as a low-end RB2/high-end FLEX.
Atlanta entered Week 9 hemorrhaging 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backs, ranking 29th in pressure rate without the blitz and dead-last in sack rate (2.2%), so the offensive line should reach the second level with ease. Dallas’ pass-heavy lean (8th in pass-rate over expectation) caps pure rushing volume, but the Falcons have already allowed multiple 20-point RB weeks and Dowdle’s 78.9 % catch rate means he’ll get his through the air even if game script skews pass-heavy.
After flashing 149 rush yards vs. Carolina in Week 15 of last year, Dowdle has cemented himself as the 1A, out-carrying Elliott 20-6 the last time both were healthy and posting 4.6 YPC with five total TDs through eight weeks.
Dowdle’s ascension to lead back is less about splashy yardage and more about steady, multi-faceted usage. Over the last month he’s handled 61 % of the Cowboys’ designed runs and 16 % of the targets out of the backfield, translating to roughly 14 touches a game—plenty against a Falcons front that’s allowed 4.8 YPC and a league-high five receiving TDs to RBs this year. The Falcons’ linebacking corps has struggled with angle discipline, and Dowdle’s 2.3 yards after contact per attempt ranks top-20 among backs with 70 + carries, giving him a realistic path to 60-70 scrimmage yards on 10-12 carries and 3-4 grabs. Add in red-zone looks—Dallas has run on 55 % of its goal-to-go series—and you have a touchdown probability that pushes him past the 12-point PPR mark that defines a winning FLEX. The only real knocks are a pass-first game plan that could siphon fourth-quarter clock-killing carries and the fact that Dowdle was limited by a minor illness early in the week. Still, he practiced in full by Friday, the matchup is pristine, and the role is secure, so the upside outweighs a modest floor that sits around nine points. In 12-team leagues dealing with bye weeks or injuries, Dowdle is exactly the kind of high-floor, moderate-ceiling play that keeps lineups afloat without requiring a prayer to the touchdown gods.