Analyze Rhamondre Stevenson's matchup for week 9
Stevenson’s declining snap share, loss of passing-down work to TreVe’yon Henderson, sub-3.5 YPC trend and expected negative game script make him a low-ceiling RB3/flex against a Falcons D that’s been stingy to receiving backs; start any comparable option ranked outside the top-18 backs.
Atlanta allows 126.4 rush yards per game (21st) and 3 rushing TDs to RBs this season, so the matchup looks plus on paper, but they’ve surrendered only two receiving TDs to backs, stripping away the passing portion of Stevenson’s already dwindling volume. A struggling Patriots O-line plus a Vegas spread that projects New England to trail most of the game further depresses his touch count and touchdown probability, capping him in the 8-point range.
Three-week slide averaging 7.2 PPR, 3.1 YPC, and a 15% drop in snaps as Henderson handles passing work; zero touchdowns and only three catches in that span.
Since Week 6, Stevenson has gone from a 65% snap share to 48%, and his carries have dipped from 19 per game to 12, as the rookie Henderson handles hurry-up and third-down reps. The Patriots’ run blocking grades 30th in PFF metrics, and Skylar Thompson’s league-worst 0.27 EPA per drop-back keeps defenses stacked against the run. With Vegas listing New England as a five-point home underdog, the Patriots are projected to trail, which historically turns the offense to Henderson and 11-personnel, further erasing Stevenson’s already limited receiving work. The Falcons’ defensive front is giving up 4.0 yards per carry between the tackles—that’s the lone glaing weakness—but Stevenson’s 2.7 YPC on inside runs the last month is the lowest among qualified RBs, so even the matchup is muted. Combine that with a -7% gamescript expectation and the Patriots’ league-low six red-zone drives over the last four games, and the path to a 100-yard or multi-TD day is razor thin. Ultimately, he’s a floor-based flex who needs a goal-line plunge to pay fantasy managers; if you have any top-24 back or a pass-catching back in a neutral script, sit Stevenson and spare yourself the variance.