Analyze Noah Fant's matchup for week 9
Fant’s elite 20-for-22 catch rate keeps his floor around 5-6 PPR, yet a zero-target dud in Week 8 and only two red-zone looks all year cap his ceiling; Chicago is a middling TE defense, making Fant a desperation streamer at best.
Chicago has surrendered the 8th-most points in the league and just 14 sacks, so Flacco should have time to survey the field; however, the Bears’ 16 takeaways lead the NFL and their LB corps has allowed only 9.8 YPR to TEs over the last month. At home, Fant could sneak into soft spots behind Ja’Marr Chase, but the Bengals’ offense funnels targets outside, leaving Fant’s volume stuck in the 3-4 look range.
After catching all 20 of his 22 targets through six games, Fant went untargeted in Week 8; his two scores came in Weeks 1 and 6, and he hasn’t topped 44 yards since Week 2.
Fant’s perfect catch rate screams reliability, yet it also underscores how rarely he’s asked to run routes beyond the sticks—his 11.0 aDOT ranks 29th among 32 qualifying tight ends. Cincinnati uses him primarily as a move blocker on early downs and a short-area safety valve inside the 20, a role that produced 7-8 PPR points when scripted correctly but evaporates when game flow turns pass-heavy. Against Chicago, expect the Bears to play single-high and bracket Chase, theoretically opening the intermediate middle; still, Fant’s snap share hovers at 65%, and backups Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson siphon red-zone reps. Projecting 3-4 grabs for 30-35 yards with a 20% TD probability yields a TE20 finish—fine in 14-team or 2-TE formats, but well below the volatility needed in standard 10- or 12-team leagues. Unless you’re ravaged by byes or injuries, leave Fant on the wire and chase a higher-upside streamer like Juwan Johnson or Cade Otton.