Analyze Nick Chubb's matchup for week 9
Nick Chubb is on a Week 9 bye and even when Cleveland returns he’s a must-sit: 3.3 YPC (46th of 47 qualifiers), only 15 % of team rush attempts, and snap share now even with explosive sophomore Woody Marks who’s getting the goal-line work.
The Browns are off in Week 9, so Chubb is unavailable. Upon their return the schedule softens (vs. DEN, @PIT, vs. KC), but the real matchup is internal—Cleveland’s coaching staff has already pivoted to a near 50/50 split with Marks, who’s outperforming Chubb in both efficiency and pass-game usage. Offensive line health has improved, yet the scheme is shifting toward outside zone looks that better suit Marks’ burst, leaving Chubb as the early-down grinder on a low-volume, low-scoring offense.
Career-worst 3.3 yards per carry through eight games, zero games above 65 rushing yards, and snap share dropping four straight weeks as Marks eats into carries and all receiving work.
The underlying data is damning: among 47 backs with 50+ carries, Chubb ranks 46th in yards per attempt, 45th in yards after contact per rush, and 44th in explosive-run rate. His 15 % team rushing-share is the lowest of any perceived starter, and Kevin Stefanski has called only five pass targets his way all year. Advanced metrics show a 28 % stuff-rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), a career-high 18 % missed-tackle rate created by Chubb himself—evidence that the burst and leg drive that once made him elite have not returned post-ACL/MCL reconstruction. Meanwhile, Marks is averaging 5.1 YPC on nearly identical volume, has converted 3-of-4 goal-line carries into scores, and owns the two-minute drill role. Even positive game scripts won’t help; Cleveland is 30th in red-zone rush rate, instead funneling targets to Cooper, Jeudy and Njoku. With the Browns already implied for a bottom-five scoring offense rest-of-season, Chubb’s touchdown ceiling is capped and his floor is sub-8 PPR points. In redraft he’s a drop in 10-team leagues and a bench-only stash in 12-team formats unless an injury to Marks re-opens 18-touch usage—something the coaching staff has shown zero appetite for given Chubb’s diminished efficiency.