Analyze Michael Mayer's matchup for week 9
With Brock Bowers out, Mayer played 92% of snaps and saw seven targets in Week 6, turning them into 5-50-1 and 16 PPR points; Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-most TE fantasy points (8.5 per game) and struggles with safety-valve tight ends, so plug Mayer in as a high-floor, high-ceiling streamer.
The Jaguars have surrendered 438 yards and 3 TDs to tight ends through seven games, and their linebackers have repeatedly lost zone brackets, a weakness Las Vegas is expected to attack after the bye. As slight underdogs, the Raiders project to throw more on early downs and in hurry-up, funneling targets to Mayer’s intermediate area.
Since Brock Bowers’ injury, Mayer’s snap rate jumped to 92% and he immediately produced 5 receptions, 50 yards and a score on seven targets—after being an afterthought the first month.
Opportunity is the lifeblood of fantasy tight ends, and Mayer now has it in spades. His 6'4", 265-pound frame and reliable hands made him the safety valve Geno Smith leaned on in the second half against Tennessee, and that chemistry should carry forward after two weeks of game-planning around him. The Raiders have historically schemed specific tight-end mismatches when given extra prep time, and Jacksonville’s coverage lapses against non-primary receivers set up perfectly for that script.
From a usage standpoint, 92% snap share puts Mayer in the elite every-down tier; only a handful of tight ends stay on the field that consistently. Seven targets in a game that Las Vegas led throughout projects to 8-10 looks if the score flips and they enter catch-up mode, raising both his 4-6 reception floor and his odds of another red-zone appearance. The Jaguars’ linebackers have allowed a reception every 6.7 snaps in coverage this year, and their safeties have missed six tackles on tight ends the past three weeks, adding YAC upside to Mayer’s profile.
Finally, context matters for playoff pushes. Week 9 is a heavy bye week, and most fantasy rosters are starved for even a 10-point TE floor. Mayer offers that floor while maintaining legitimate 20-point ceiling equity if he finds the end zone twice—something Jacksonville has already allowed once this season. In 12-team PPR he’s a no-brainer start; in shallower formats he’s still a priority play over touchdown-dependent veterans who aren’t seeing near every-down work.