Analyze Matthew Stafford's matchup for week 9
Stafford is white-hot (11 TDs, 0 INTs in his last three) and draws a reeling Saints pass-D that’s coughed up 14 TDs to QBs. With Puka Nacua and RT Rob Havenstein returning off a bye, Stafford is a locked-in mid-QB1 with 20-plus-point upside.
New Orleans arrives at 1-6 and ranks 18th in fantasy points allowed to QBs (16.8 per game) while hemorrhaging 2.0 passing TDs a contest. The Saints generate little pressure (tied for 23rd in sack rate) and field a bottom-third coverage unit that just allowed Daniel Jones 28.3 points. Inside the dome, Stafford’s 66% completion rate and 8.2 YPA should translate into another 280-320-yard, multi-score afternoon.
Over his last three starts Stafford is the overall QB2: 315 pass YPG, 11 total TDs, 0 INTs and 26.8 fantasy PPG.
Stafford’s late-career renaissance isn’t a mirage. Sean McVay has fully weaponized the veteran’s pre-snap processing—LA is top-five in play-action rate (33%) and Stafford leads the NFL in quick-strike TD passes (under 2.5 seconds). The offensive line, buoyed by Havenstein’s return, has trimmed pressure rate to 28% (ninth-best), letting Stafford carve from clean pockets where his passer rating jumps to 112.4. Even without significant rushing juice, the floor is rock-solid because volume is guaranteed: the Rams’ 63% neutral-script pass rate is fourth-highest, and the Saints’ 29th-ranked scoring defense keeps game-scripts friendly.
Expect a steady diet of 11-personnel with Nacua and Cooper Kupp creating horizontal stretch and Davante Adams working the intermediate seams. New Orleans plays man at the fifth-highest rate; Stafford’s 9.6 YPA vs man this year is second only to Tua. If the Saints rotate bracket coverage toward Kupp, Adams’ 77% catch rate on slants and comebacks becomes the outlet valve. The Rams’ red-zone pass rate (62%) plus the Saints’ 67% TD-conversion allowance inside the 20 sets up another 2-3-score ceiling.
The macro schedule also supports sustained production. After Week 9 Stafford draws Seattle (30th vs QB), Arizona (22nd) and a bye-battered 49ers secondary before a fantasy playoff run that includes New England and the Jets. Buy into the hot hand now; age 37 isn’t a cliff when intelligence, arm talent and surrounding health align this cleanly. Plug him in as a top-eight QB with legitimate top-three week-winning upside.