Analyze Mason Taylor's matchup for week 9
Etienne is a locked-in RB2 with RB1 upside against a Raiders defense that has allowed the 4th-most RB fantasy points, eight rushing TDs and a 4.0 YPC; his 16+ touch role and league-leading three 30-yard runs in four weeks give him an excellent floor and ceiling.
Las Vegas has quietly been one of the league’s friendliest run defenses, coughing up 142 rushing attempts (7th-most), eight rushing touchdowns (tied for 3rd-most) and 17.8 PPR points per game to backs. Their defensive line has leaked gap integrity all year, creating natural lanes for explosive runners. With the 4-3 Jaguars incentivized to keep the ball on the ground in a competitive indoor game script, Etienne should see 18-22 carries and have multiple red-zone opportunities.
After a 2024 wash-out (558-2, 3.7 YPC), Etienne has re-emerged as Jacksonville’s 16-touch workhorse and the only RB with 30-yard bursts in three of the first four 2025 games.
The Clemson product’s early-season usage and efficiency metrics point to a legitimate resurgence. He’s handled 66% of the backfield touches through Week 8, converting them into 5.2 yards per carry over his last three games while pacing the NFL in rushes of 30-plus yards. That explosive profile meshes perfectly with a Raiders defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 12 runs of 20+ yards and routinely fails to set the edge on outside-zone looks—the core of Jacksonville’s redesigned run scheme under the new coaching staff. Even if game flow limits second-half volume, Etienne’s touchdown probability is sky-high: Las Vegas has surrendered a rushing score once every 17.8 carries, and Jacksonville owns the league’s 6th-highest red-zone rush rate (59%).
The lone knock on Etienne’s fantasy ceiling is a near-nonexistent receiving role—he’s seen only 12 targets through seven games and averages 8 receiving yards per contest. That keeps him from entering every-week RB1 territory in full-PPR formats, yet it does little to diminish his floor against a defense that bleeds yardage between the tackles. Moreover, the Jaguars’ improving offensive line has opened the 5th-most yards before contact on inside runs over the past month, neutralizing the Raiders’ primary strength: defensive tackle play. Expect inside zone and duo concepts to gash Vegas early, setting up play-action shots that keep drives alive and provide Etienne additional fourth-quarter touches if Jacksonville protects a lead.
Bottom line: volume, matchup and touchdown equity all align for a spike week. Fire up Etienne as a high-end RB2 who possesses top-five positional upside should he find the end zone twice—a realistic outcome given the Raiders’ inability to finish tackles inside the 20. Bench him only if your roster is loaded with top-12 options; everyone else should enjoy what could be the signature performance of his comeback season.