Analyze Marvin Harrison's matchup for week 9
Despite three quiet weeks, Harrison draws the NFL’s most WR-friendly defense—Dallas has allowed 15 WR TDs and 28 deep completions—making him a locked-in start with WR1 upside.
The Cowboys’ secondary has been a season-long disaster, ranking dead-last in receiving yards (206.8 per game) and TDs (15) surrendered to wideouts while hemorrhaging 20-plus-yard completions. Harrison’s 14.2-yard aDOT and contested-catch skill set align perfectly with Dallas’ injured corner group and repeated coverage busts. Arizona has publicly vowed to force-feed its star receiver, creating a rare confluence of elite talent, scheme intent, and defensive ineptitude.
Harrison has faded hard—8-13-188 and zero TDs over his last three outings, averaging 6.3 PPR points with back-to-back 2-catch duds and a dwindling target share.
Marvin Harrison Jr.’s recent stat line reads like a cautionary tale: six targets total the past two weeks, no scores since Week 4, and a target share that has cratered alongside the Cardinals’ offensive line instability. The underlying metrics—snap share and route participation—remain stable, but the quality of looks has deteriorated; Kyler Murray has been pressured on 42 % of drop-backs during this stretch, forcing quick-hit throws to the slot and backs instead of allowing vertical routes to develop. Even so, pedigree matters: Harrison still ranks sixth among WRs in air-yard share and fourth in average depth of target, proof that the coaching staff views him as the primary explosive-play outlet.
Dallas, meanwhile, is essentially a welcome mat dressed in navy and silver. Opposing WRs have toasted the Cowboys for 2.65 yards per route run, the league’s worst mark by nearly half a yard. Trevon Diggs is playing through a knee issue that has sapped his burst, rookie Caelen Carson owns a 138.6 passer rating when targeted, and the safety tandem of Donovan Wilson and Juanyeh Thomas has combined for six missed tackles on deep balls. The schematic issues are worse: Dan Quinn’s single-high looks have left cornerbacks on islands, and the pass rush (31st in pressure rate) rarely forces hurried throws. The result is a defense that has allowed multiple WR touchdowns in four separate games and 100-yard performances to players ranging from Diontae Johnson to Jauan Jennings. Harrison’s release package against off-coverage—where Dallas aligns 62 % of the time—should create free access on digs and posts, while his 6-3 frame and 95th-percentile contested-catch rate neutralizes the physicality that Diggs still provides.
Expect Arizona to script early touches: motion-shoots, backside slants, and play-action posts out of 12 personnel to isolate Harrison on Carson or Diggs. The Cardinals have red-zone targets on 54 % of their goal-to-go plays this year; Dallas has allowed a league-high 11 TDs on such throws. Regression is already baked into the game plan—Kliff Kingsbury (consultant) and Drew Petzing have emphasized stack formations designed to force bracket coverage away from Harrison and create the 1-on-1s that Dallas simply cannot win. Project eight looks (25 % target share), six grabs, 92 yards, and a score—numbers that could spike to 140 and two TDs if the game stays competitive into the fourth quarter.