Analyze Mark Andrews's matchup for week 9
Andrews has cratered since his 21-point Week 3 explosion, averaging 2.9 points over the last three games, but a Dolphins defense that’s allowed 15.5 fantasy points per game to tight ends (23rd) gives him a solid 7-12 point floor and his best shot at a touchdown since Week 3.
Miami has bled production to tight ends all year—18 catches, 279 yards, 4 TDs through six games—and just gave up two TE scores to the Patriots last week. Baltimore’s offense should get Lamar Jackson back, and Andrews still leads the team in red-zone targets (7) despite the recent slump. The Dolphins’ 29.3 points allowed per game and bottom-third TE defense create a get-right spot for the veteran, even with Isaiah Likely cutting into some snaps.
Three-week slide: 3, 2.2, 2.6 fantasy points and only 10 total targets after his 21-point eruption in Week 3.
The arrow has pointed straight down for Andrews since his signature two-score day against Detroit. Over the subsequent three games he’s seen his target share dip to 14 %, turned 13 looks into just 76 scoreless yards, and played fewer than 70 % of snaps in two of the last three as the Ravens have worked Isaiah Likely into more 2-TE and even some 1-TE sets. Chemistry with Lamar Jackson has looked off—balls have been high, routes cut short, and the usual back-shoulder and seam throws that once were automatic have turned into PBUs or off-target incompletions. Still, Andrews paces the club with seven end-zone looks and remains the primary read on most play-action concepts, so the usage is more stable than the box scores suggest.
Miami’s defensive issues at tight end are scheme-driven. They’ve played a lot of single-high Cover-3 and man-free looks, leaving linebackers Duke Riley and David Long in plus-matchups against athletic TEs. When safeties rotate down, communication busts have led to crossers and seam balls going uncontested. Opposing tight ends are averaging 9.5 yards per target versus Miami (30th) and have produced a 126.3 passer rating when targeted, further underscoring how friendly the matchup is.
Thursday night’s short-week environment historically favors veteran skill players who win with nuance rather than raw speed—Andrews fits that profile. Expect Greg Roman to manufacture touches via bunch formations and motion to isolate Andrews on Riley or rookie LB Channing Tindall. If Jackson plays, Baltimore’s red-zone pass rate jumps to 55 % (from 38 % with Huntley), directly benefiting Andrews, who owns a 32 % target share inside the 20. Bank on five looks, 50-plus yards, and a coin-flip TD that should land him in the low-end TE1 8-12 point window—solid enough to start over most waiver-wire streamers.