Analyze Lamar Jackson's matchup for week 9
A healthy Lamar Jackson returns Thursday night to a plum matchup with Miami’s defense that has already surrendered 16.35 fantasy points per game to QBs; even at 75% he projects as a top-10 play.
Miami ranks 11th in passing yards allowed (199.4 per game) but has given up 22 passing TDs and big fantasy lines to mobile quarterbacks (Josh Allen 27, Kyler Murray 25, Brock Purdy 24). Their linebackers struggle to contain QB runs and the Dolphins have allowed multiple touchdown passes to four different starters. It’s a plus matchup for a dual-threat elite talent.
Before the hamstring flare-up Jackson was posting career-best efficiency numbers: 71.6% completions, 10 TD vs 1 INT, 130.6 passer rating and 166 rushing yards through four games. His only sub-20-point outing came on the drive he injured his hamstring in Week 4, showing that a healthy Jackson is automatic QB1 gold.
Even with a modest rushing ceiling this week, Jackson’s arm and red-zone usage keep him in the 18-22 point range—still a top-tier quarterback. Miami’s 1.9 rushing TDs allowed per game and their history of giving up QB rushing scores means you don’t need 10 carries for him to hit value. If he throws for 210-220 yards and a pair of touchdowns, a 40-yard rushing bonus and a QB sneak TD put him in the QB1 mix. Sit him only if you own Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts; otherwise enjoy the King’s return to your fantasy throne.