Analyze Kyren Williams's matchup for week 9
Rested off the bye, Williams owns bell-cow usage (72/340 rushing, 17 receptions last five) and faces a Saints defense allowing 124.3 yds/g and six different RB TDs; lock him in as a low-end RB1 with top-5 upside.
New Orleans’ front is beatable (20th vs. run, two 100-yard rushers allowed) and their uncertain QB situation should create positive, clock-controlling scripts for the Rams. Williams’ dual-threat role—only one rushing TD allowed to a single back by the Saints keeps the floor safe, but the ceiling is massive if he punches in two scores.
Ascending: 14.8 PPG average over last three, 12-114-2 receiving during that span and 22 targets in five weeks confirms PPR juice to buffer any game-script risk.
Kyren Williams’ arrow is pointing straight up. Sean McVay has tethered the offense to his second-year back since the Week 6 bye, feeding him 72 carries (4.7 YPC) and 22 targets over five games. That 18-touch floor is rare in today’s committee landscape and keeps his fantasy line afloat even if the Rams trail. Add in a Saints defense that just allowed 124.3 rushing yards per contest and has given up six rushing scores to five different backs, and you get the perfect confluence of workload and matchup. The Saints’ pass rush is middling, their linebackers have struggled with angle tackles, and safety Marcus Maye is questionable—tiny cracks that a patient, decisive runner like Williams can exploit on inside zone and swing passes.
Game-flow forecasters love this spot. If Tyler Shough or a limited Derek Carr can’t sustain drives, Los Angeles will lean on its rested O-line to salt away second-half possessions. Williams’ 1.9-yard gap in yards created per carry versus New Orleans’ yards allowed per carry screams efficiency edge, and his 10.8% target share since Week 4 offers a 6-8-point PPR cushion. The only real knock is red-zone vulture risk—New Orleans ranks ninth in power-run success—but Williams has converted five of his last six goal-line chances, so the coaching staff isn’t likely to deviate.
Bottom line: you’re looking at 16-20 touches, a 60% chance of finding pay-dirt, and a receiving floor that keeps him startable in negative scripts. Sit him only if your roster is so stacked that you’re choosing between Williams and a top-five back, a scenario that simply doesn’t exist in 99% of leagues. Expect 14-17 PPR points with spike weeks of 25+ if he rips off the screen game or falls into the end zone twice—precisely the profile you want locked into lineups down the stretch.