Analyze Kyle Pitts's matchup for week 9
Pitts has averaged 4-42-0 over his last five and draws a Patriots defense that’s allowed only two TE touchdowns all year; the lack of volume, red-zone usage, and a potentially crowded receiver group make him a low-ceiling, high-risk play in Week 9.
New England enters Week 9 surrendering the 12th-fewest TE fantasy points (9.3 per game) and has yet to let an opposing tight end top 60 yards; Pitts, meanwhile, has cleared 40 yards only twice this season and has one touchdown in six games, leaving him touchdown-dependent against a defense that rarely concedes them.
A steady 4-42-0 line over his last five with only one week above 6.2 PPR points, highlighting both a capped ceiling and minimal spike-week probability.
The macro issue with Pitts is usage: he’s run a route on just 68% of dropbacks the last month and sports a meager 14% target share inside the 20, numbers that relegate him to a volume-based floor rather than the athletic ceiling that once made him a top-3 pick. Add in Michael Penix’s possible return—historically shaky to tight ends in college—and Darnell Mooney’s return from a hamstring issue, and target competition could chip away at the already middling 5.8 looks per game Pitts has seen. New England’s primary coverage plan is Cover-3 and man-match, schemes that allow Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers to squat on intermediate middle routes where Pitts does most of his damage; the Patriots’ linebackers have surrendered only 6.9 YPT to TEs, fourth-stingiest, so even positive scripts haven’t produced splash weeks for the position against them. With a projected 3-40-0 stat line and a 5.7–7.6 PPR range, Pitts is essentially praying for a goal-line look that has come only once all year; bench him for any top-15 streamer with a softer matchup until Atlanta re-establishes him as a true focal point.