Analyze Kyle Monangai's matchup for week 9
Kyle Monangai is a must-start this week: he’s locked in to a 46% snap share, averages 5.25 YPC the last two weeks, and faces the league-worst Bengals run defense that’s coughing up 25.9 RB fantasy points per game and a TD on 37.7% of drives.
The Bengals have been historically bad against RBs, giving up the most fantasy points (25.9/gm), 859 rush yards, 6 rushing TDs, plus 35 catches for 9.6 YPR and 4 more scores through the air, all while ranking last in the NFL in defensive success rate. Chicago is a 2.5-point road favorite with a 27.5-point implied total, so expect a run-friendly script that should funnel 12-15 touches to Monangai in a true timeshare.
Over the last two weeks Monangai has played 46% of snaps, averaging 5.25 YPC on 20 carries and scoring once, plus flashed third-down involvement that keeps him on the field regardless of down and distance.
The rookie’s usage is the key. Since Week 7 he’s logged 46% of the snaps in back-to-back games, turning that opportunity into 105 yards and a TD while proving he can handle passing-down reps, so he’s no longer merely a handcuff—he’s a legitimate co-starter in a committee that has overtaken the backfield. Against Baltimore’s top-tier front seven last week he averaged 3.9 YPC and was targeted twice, and versus New Orleans in Week 7 he ripped off 6.2 YPC and a score, showing he can capitalize when the matchup is softer. That trend should continue against a Bengals defense that has hemorrhaged production for eight straight weeks, giving up at least 27 points every game and allowing a league-high 89.8% of runs to gain positive yards. The game environment is perfect: Chicago owns a top-12 run rate (45.4%) and Cincinnati’s offense can’t stay on the field, creating positive game scripts and red-zone drives that historically produce multiple RB touchdowns. Finally, Monangai’s role is insulated from game-flow risk; even if Chicago falls behind his pass-game involvement keeps his floor around 8–9 points, and if they build a lead—as the 2.5-point favorites suggest—the Bears will ride his fresh legs through the fourth quarter, giving him ceiling for 18–22 touches and multiple scores.