Analyze Khalil Shakir's matchup for week 9
Start Shakir as a FLEX in Week 9; expect 4-6 catches, 50-65 yds, TD odds ~50%. KC’s pass-D is stingy (177.8 ypg) but a 51.5 O/U shootout and his 6+ targets in 5-of-6 games give him a safe PPR floor and upside
Kansas City’s pass defense ranks 3rd (177.8 ypg, only 7 WR TDs allowed) and has yet to let a WR hit 100 yds, but the Bills’ home environment plus the 51.5-point total sets up a shootout that has averaged 54 total pts in Allen vs Mahomes games. The Chiefs have given up at least one WR TD in 5 of 8 games and have struggled to cover spread-out passing attacks, opening the door for Tracy’s emerging WR2 role to stay involved.
Over his last three games Shakir has 15/21 targets, 166 yds, season-best 14.8 pts in Week 2 vs CAR, and 10.8 ypr on 31-356-3 line.
Shakir’s role has stabilized as Josh Allen’s most trusted option outside of Kincaid, earning 6+ targets in five of his last six games and converting at a 75% clip. That sort of target share in a top-3 scoring offense gives him a solid PPR floor; add in his 10.8 yards-per-catch efficiency and a 50+ yd catch-and-run TD last week, and the second-year WR now profiles as a reliable WR3/FLEX who can spike a long score in any given week.
Kansas City’s metrics look intimidating on paper, but the context matters. Opponents have been forced to pass 60% of the schemed snaps vs KC because their offense scores fast, inflating volume for secondary targets. The Chiefs have allowed 7 WR TDs and have allowed 15+ PPR pts to five different WRs this season, all while playing mostly man coverage that opens up the middle of the field—exactly where Shakir (78% slot snaps) thrives. Buffalo’s 51.5 O/U is the second-highest on the slate, and in nine prior Allen vs Mahomes matchups we’ve seen 54 total pts on average, meaning the game script should keep the pass-heavy packages on the field.
The risk is that Buffalo leans on James Cook’s breakout rushing attack, but even in positive scripts Shakir has stayed involved; in the Bills’ last three wins he���s averaged 5.3 targets and 7.4 ppr points, so the floor is real. Expect 4-6 receptions, 50-65 yds, and a 50% probability of a TD—good for roughly 9-11 ppr points and borderline WR3/FLEX value. In 12-team formats, he sits in the mid-30s positional rankings, but the matchup context pushes him into the ‘start’ column—especially for managers looking for a safe floor in a high-scoring game.