Analyze Keon Coleman's matchup for week 9
Coleman’s target share and production have collapsed since Week 1, and the Chiefs’ top-three pass defense has yet to allow a 100-yard receiver or a 300-yard passer this season, making him a near-auto-sit in all but the deepest leagues.
Kansas City is giving up the third-fewest passing yards per game (177.8) and has surrendered only seven touchdown catches all year. Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme specializes in eliminating the opponent’s primary outside threat, a role Coleman no longer consistently occupies after seeing his targets drop from 11 in the opener to just four in Week 8. With Trent McDuffie shadowing and Justin Reid rolling over the top, Coleman will have to win against tight man coverage—something he has struggled to do since Week 1.
Since his 8-112-1 breakout in the opener, Coleman has averaged 3.5 catches for 25 scoreless yards and hasn’t topped 6.0 PPR points in any contest, playing fewer than 75 % of snaps while Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid command target priority.
The underlying metrics are uglier than the box scores. Coleman’s separation rate sits in the 28th percentile among wideouts (per NFL Next Gen), and when he fails to win early, Josh Allen has shown no hesitation to look elsewhere. Over the last six weeks Allen has a 48 % completion rate when targeting Coleman versus 72 % to Shakir, a disparity that has turned the rookie into a situational deep-shot rather than a volume piece. Against a Chiefs defense that rushes four 71 % of the time yet still ranks sixth in pressure rate, Allen’s average time-to-throw drops to 2.4 seconds—far too quick for Coleman’s contested-catch style to develop. Add in Kansas City’s league-low 7.7 % explosive pass rate allowed and you have a profile that caps both floor and ceiling. Finally, game script works against him: Buffalo is a 9.5-point favorite, so if the Bills build a lead they will lean on the league’s top rushing attack, further shrinking Coleman’s already-dwindling target floor. The result is a player whose median outcome is 3-4 grabs for 55 yards with virtually no touchdown equity—numbers that don’t crack the top 70 wide receivers in Week 9 projections.