Analyze Kareem Hunt's matchup for week 9
Hunt’s role keeps shrinking (career-low snap share) and his entire fantasy value is tied to goal-line touchdowns; against a sturdy Bills run defense that rarely coughs up red-zone scores, the odds of another multi-TD fluky day are too low to trust in lineups.
Buffalo enters allowing the seventh-fewest RB rushing yards per game and has surrendered only three rushing TDs all season; their interior front of DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver ranks top-10 in stuff rate, which caps Hunt’s already meager between-the-touches upside. The Bills’ offense is potent enough to keep games neutral or positive script, so Kansas City isn’t projected for the condensed red-zone drives Hunt needs—KC’s implied total sits at just 21 points. Even if the Chiefs punch inside the 10, Hunt’s touch share there has fallen from 80% in September to barely 50% last week as Isiah Pacheco’s role grows.
Touch count has dropped four straight weeks (9, 7, 6, 5) and he’s averaged 3.2 YPC with only six targets on the season; the only constant is salvaging weeks when he lucks into two TDs.
Kareem Hunt’s 2025 usage curve is collapsing at the exact time fantasy teams need stability. Since Week 4 his snap share has fallen from 42% to 24%, while Pacheco’s has risen to a season-high 68%. Hunt’s 7 carries inside the 10 look juicy on paper, but five came in Weeks 1–3; over the last month he’s received exactly three such carries and converted two for scores. That touchdown rate (67%) is unsustainable positive variance masking a back who’s being phased out of the offense. Buffalo compounds the problem: they play nickel on early downs at the sixth-highest rate, forcing opponents into shotgun and erasing traditional power runs—Hunt’s only path to steady work. When the Bills do keep base on the field, they blitz 38% of the time, stressing pass-pro first backs, which again favors Pacheco. The matchup data backs the eye test: RBs facing Buffalo average just 0.68 rushing TDs per game, second-stingiest in the league, and have produced only one top-12 PPR week all season. Hunt’s entire fantasy equation is (tiny touchdown probability × 6) + (negligible yardage × 0.1) = coin-flip outcome. With bye-week desperation everywhere, it’s tempting to chase last week’s 2-TD eruption, but the process is broken. Bench him unless your alternatives are practice-squad call-ups; the ceiling remains one flukey goal-line plunge, but the floor is literal zero touches in negative game script, a scenario Vegas projects at 55% likelihood.