Analyze Justice Hill's matchup for week 9
Hill’s pass-game usage gives him a low-end PPR floor, but Derrick Henry’s dominance caps upside; he’s a desperation deep-PPR flex only.
Miami is allowing the 9th-most RB fantasy points (23.0 per game) and has surrendered 33 RB receptions, setting up a potential PPR safety net for Hill. However, Henry controls early downs and goal-line work, so Hill’s value hinges on negative game-script targets. The Dolphins’ middling rush defense (898 yards, 5 TDs allowed) won’t matter much if Hill sees his usual 3–4 touches.
Snap share climbed to a month-high 31% in Week 8 and he logged 4 targets, hinting at a slight receiving-role uptick.
Justice Hill remains locked into a pass-down/change-of-ace role behind Derrick Henry, capping his weekly ceiling. Over the 2024 season he averaged 8.5 PPR points on 2.8 receptions and 3.1 carries per game, scoring 5 times total. That profile makes him game-script dependent: positive scripts feed Henry, while negative ones elevate Hill’s target share. Against Miami’s defense, which has already allowed 33 RB receptions, Hill has a plausible 4–5 catch floor that keeps him relevant only in full-PPR formats deeper than 12 teams. Standard-leaguers should avoid the volatility; even in PPR he’s a low-ceiling flex whose best realistic outcome is 10–12 points if the Ravens fall into catch-up mode. Unless your alternatives are injured or on bye, keep Hill on the bench and monitor his usage trend for future weeks when the matchup or game script tilts more heavily toward pass-catching backs.