Analyze Josh Jacobs's matchup for week 9
Pacheco has cleared 90 scrimmage yards in four straight, but the Saints’ quietly stout red-zone defense keeps his TD upside capped; fire him up as a volume-based RB2 with a safe floor.
New Orleans enters Week 9 allowing the 12th-fewest RB rushing yards (4.1 YPC) yet has coughed up six TDs on the ground. The Chiefs remain top-10 in rush rate inside the 10-yard line, so Pacheco’s goal-line role is secure even if per-carry efficiency dips. Expect 17-20 touches against a defense that just traded for run-stuffing NT but is still without injured LB Pete Werner.
Over the last month Pacheco is fantasy’s RB11 in half-PPR, averaging 19.3 touches and 4.8 targets while playing 73% of snaps; his 2.36 YAC per attempt ranks fifth among backs with 60+ carries in that span.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is finally healthy—both Joe Thuney and Trey Smith practiced in full—which should spring more creases than Pacheco saw in October. New Orleans runs a light-box 62% of the time, tempting Andy Reid to stay balanced and bleed clock with a lead. Pacheco’s pass-game usage keeps his floor high: he’s run 17 more routes than any KC back over the last four weeks and has converted six of seven red-zone carries. The Saints have allowed only three RB receiving TDs since Week 4, but they’ve surrendered the eighth-most RB receptions, so dump-off production is viable. Game script projects positive—Kansas City is a 6.5-point road favorite—cementing 20-touch upside. Expect 85-100 rushing yards, 3-4 receptions for 20-25 receiving yards, and a 55% chance of finding pay-dirt. That’s a comfortable top-18 weekly play with ceiling for top-12 numbers if Kansas City reaches 28+ points.