Analyze Josh Downs's matchup for week 9
Josh Downs is a locked-in FLEX starter with WR3 upside against a Steelers defense hemorrhaging fantasy points to slot receivers; expect 5-7 targets, 4-5 grabs, 50-70 yards and a real shot at a touchdown for 12-16 PPR points.
Pittsburgh’s once-feared defense now bleeds the third-most WR fantasy points per game and has been especially vulnerable over the middle, precisely where Downs runs 80 % of his routes. Indianapolis’ 30-point-per-game offense should stay pass-heavy on the road, funneling steady red-zone looks to the shifty slot man.
Quietly efficient: three straight double-digit fantasy outings despite only 3 targets last week; volume dipped but red-zone usage and scoring upside keep him relevant.
The narrative that the Steelers still field an elite defense is outdated; through eight weeks they’ve allowed 25.4 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts and rank bottom-five in yards per slot target. Downs’ 2.15-yard average separation versus zone coverage pairs perfectly with Pittsburgh’s heavy Cover-3 usage, and his 25 % target rate when lined up inside over the last month shows the Colts actively scheme to get him the ball. Expect Shane Steichen to motion Downs into stacks and rub concepts to exploit the Steelers’ nickel-corner tandem of Chandon Sullivan and rookie Cory Trice, who together have surrendered 78 % completions and four touchdowns on balls thrown under 15 air yards. Even as the clear third read behind Michael Pittman and Tyler Warren, Downs is the primary red-zone slot option (five inside-10 targets in the last four games) and should see 5-7 looks in a game script that projects for neutral-to-positive pass volume. His weekly floor is 4-5 receptions and 50-60 yards, but the matchup offers a 35 % probability of a touchdown, pushing his median projection to 14 PPR points with a realistic 20-point ceiling should he find pay-dirt twice or break a tackle for a 40-plus-yard gain.