Analyze Jordan Addison's matchup for week 9
Jordan Addison has averaged 16.0 PPR points during a four-game double-digit scoring streak, faces a Lions secondary allowing the 9th-most fantasy points to WRs, and projects for 7-9 targets, making him a clear start even with J.J. McCarthy under center.
Detroit's defense has allowed 9.2 yards per catch to WR2s, has given up 14 completions of 20+ air yards, and ranks 28th in deep-ball completion rate, creating a perfect environment for Addison’s vertical skill-set. Addison has averaged 2.5 catches for 45 yards on throws of 15+ yards over his last four games, and the Lions’ Cover-3 looks will let him attack the weak-side hole between CB2 Kindle Vildor and rookie FS Brian Branch.
Since returning from suspension in Week 4 Addison has posted 10+ PPR every week: 16.4 vs PIT, 15.1 at CLE, 21.8 vs PHI, and 13.6 at LAC, pacing to 94.3 receiving ypg (3rd-best among WRs) while commanding a 25% target share and three top-18 weekly finishes.
The biggest development is his chemistry with Carson Wentz, but the expected return of J.J. McCarthy shouldn’t crater his value. McCarthy ran 11 personnel on 73% of snaps during Weeks 1-3, targeting slot/outside WRs 68% of the time. Addison’s 2.34 yards per route versus man coverage ranks 11th, and Detroit plays man at a 29% clip. Even if Jefferson draws double-teams, Addison’s average depth of target (14.8 yd, 4th-highest) aligns with the Lions’ league-worst 48% deep-ball catch rate. Volume is secure: the Vikings have thrown 63% of the time when leading by <7, and Addison has run 91% of routes with an 18% target share in those scripts. Addison also has red-zone juice—five targets inside the 20, converting two for scores. The offensive line (two starters questionable) could shorten drop-backs, yet Detroit’s 8.2% sack rate on quick-game attempts allows for 5-to-7-yard completions that he can turn into YAC (6.3 per reception this year). Expect 6-8 catches on 8-9 targets, 75-90 yards, and a 40% chance of a TD—good for 15-18 PPR points and a low-end WR2 floor with WR1 upside if he pops a 40-yarder over the top.