Analyze Jaylen Warren's matchup for week 9
Warren’s 15-touch, 65-yard baseline keeps him in low-end RB2 range against an 18th-ranked Colts run defense; start him for stability, not spike weeks.
Indianapolis enters Heinz Field allowing middle-of-the-pack RB fantasy production (18th vs. RBs), so there’s no plus or minus schematic tilt. Warren’s 65% snap share and 15-plus-touch role remain secure—Kenneth Gainwell is only a change-of-pace—so volume is locked in. The Steelers’ improving offense could create a few extra red-zone looks, yet Warren’s 3.1 YPC and zero rushing TDs this year cap his ceiling.
Steady but unspectacular: 62.2 scrimmage yards per game over his last five, 11 catches for 142 yards in 2025, and no 100-yard rushing effort since Week 3.
Warren’s profile is the definition of a floor play. Since his 127-yard explosion early in the year, he’s averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone on the ground. What saves his fantasy value is a locked-in workload—15 or more touches in virtually every contest—and reliable dump-off usage that nets 3-5 receptions per game. That receiving work keeps his PPR baseline around 12 points, and his advanced-metrics profile (top-10 rushing success rate, top-10 PFF grade) shows the coaching staff trusts him in all situations. Against Indianapolis, that means another 60-80 total-yard day with a handful of catches is the most likely outcome. The Colts don’t bleed big runs (only 4.0 yards per carry allowed) and have given up merely five rushing scores to backs, so a breakthrough touchdown remains unlikely. If your roster is built for consistency and you simply need to avoid a zero, Warren is a fine RB2 or flex. Conversely, if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup, pivot to a higher-variance back who can hit 20-plus points. Looking ahead, Warren’s playoff schedule (Weeks 15-17) is favorable, making him a quality hold in trade-deadline formats even if his Week 9 ceiling is modest.