Analyze Jaylen Waddle's matchup for week 9
With Tyreek Hill out, Waddle has averaged 15.6 PPG while commanding a 42.8 % air-yard share; Baltimore bleeds 39.2 WR fantasy points a game, making him an auto-start Thursday night.
The Ravens’ secondary has cratered, surrendering 250.9 pass yds/gm and the 2d-most WR fantasy points (39.2). Waddle, now Miami’s clear WR1, draws a corner group that has already allowed 13 different WR TDs and is ripe for explosive plays. Baltimore has no answer for his vertical speed, especially when aligned in the slot, where Waddle leads the NFL in yards per route since Week 5.
Since Hill’s Week 4 injury Waddle has 95+ yds in 3 of 4 games, a 20.4 % target share and an absurd 287.8 % first-read share, turning opportunity into 15.6 fantasy PPG.
Waddle’s usage spike is the single biggest variable in this matchup. With Hill sidelined he owns nearly 43 % of Miami’s air yards—elite-alpha territory typically reserved for the league’s top-five receivers. That volume projects beautifully against a Ravens defense that plays man coverage at the sixth-highest rate yet allows 0.45 fantasy points per route to opposing WRs, third-worst per PFF. Baltimore’s slot corner has allowed 1.68 yards per cover snap over the last month; Waddle runs about 62 % of his routes inside, creating an immediate leverage point. Expect defensive coordinator Zach Orr to roll safety help, but Tua’s quick-release timing concepts still funnel first-read targets to Waddle on hitches, crossers and glance routes, all of which have gashed Baltimore for 15+ yard chunks this year. Thursday-night short-week chaos historically depresses offense by ~5 %, but the effect is muted for home teams with established QB-WR rapport—exactly what we have here in Miami. Finally, game-script risk is minimal: the Dolphins are 3-point favorites with a 47-point total, implying a competitive shootout rather than a run-heavy slog. Plug Waddle in as a high-floor, top-eight ceiling WR1 and enjoy the fireworks.