Analyze Jared Goff's matchup for week 9
Jared Goff is a locked-in QB1 for Week 9 after the bye, facing a Vikings defense that bleeds explosive plays on contested throws and has allowed 13.4 yards per such look. With Detroit an 8.5-point home favorite in a dome, Goff’s 17:3 TD:INT surge over his last five games should continue.
The Lions’ 48.5-point total and 79 % win probability forecast a pass-friendly script. Minnesota’s secondary has cratered in contested situations—73 % success rate and 13.4 YPA both worst in the league—while giving up 188 air yards per game (8th-worst). Detroit’s elite WR/TE trio and rested line should expose those cracks.
Over his last three games Goff has completed 76.5 % of throws for 702 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT and 15.7 FPPG; season-long he sits 9th in yards (1 631) and 4th in passing scores (15) with only three picks.
The macro environment screams shootout. Minnesota just allowed 26.5 PPG over the last month and has already surrendered multiple touchdown passes to ten different receivers. With the game indoors and the Lions implied for 28-plus points, Goff will have clean pockets and positive script throughout. The Vikings’ man-heavy, blitz-heavy approach under Brian Flores plays directly into Goff’s quick-processing strengths—he owns the league’s 3rd-best passer rating vs man coverage since Week 5. Expect intermediate crossers to Amon-Ra St. Brown and play-action shots to Jameson Williams to pile up YAC against a defense that whiffs on 19 % of tackles. Finally, the bye week timing is crucial: Detroit tweaked red-zone concepts and should convert the 1.8 TDs the model projects into at least two scores, pushing Goff toward 18-20 fantasy points and a top-eight weekly finish.