Analyze Jameson Williams's matchup for week 9
Williams’ big-play upside is neutered by a 17.0 aDOT, only 4.3 targets per game, and a run-heavy Lions script; Minnesota’s blitz-heavy, separation-leaky defense is tempting, but the floor is zero again—bench him unless your league forces a desperation FLEX.
The Vikings blitz more than any team, and Goff shreds the blitz (75% comp, 9.2 YPA), theoretically opening deep shots for Williams. Minnesota also ranks 28th in separation allowed (3.8 yds). However, Amon-Ra St. Brown (61 targets) and Sam LaPorta vacuum up volume while Detroit is 24th in pass attempts (29.1/g). Williams’ role is strictly vertical, making him a low-percentage dart against a defense that’s still 8th in pass yards allowed.
Since his 4-108-1 Week 2 explosion, Williams has averaged 2.2 catches and 31.6 yards over five games, posting two zero-catch outings and watching his targets fall from 6.1 per game in 2024 to 4.3 in 2025.
The underlying usage data is the red flag: Williams’ average depth of target has spiked to 17.0 yards, but his target share has slipped to 18% in an offense running 5.5 fewer plays per game. That combination turns him into a one-trick, low-floor lottery ticket who needs a single 40-yard bomb to pay off. Jared Goff’s excellence versus the blitz keeps the theoretical ceiling alive—Flores sends extra rushers on 48% of snaps—but the Lions’ shift toward a ball-control attack (tied for 24th in pass attempts) means those blitz-beating shots are being funneled to St. Brown and LaPorta underneath. Even if Minnesota’s aging secondary concedes explosives, Williams has to compete for only 2–4 looks, a razor-thin margin for fantasy relevance. Until Detroit re-incorporates intermediate concepts or his target share rebounds into the 20s, he’s a bench stash in standard 10- and 12-team leagues and only a desperation FLEX in 14-team or deeper formats where you’re chasing a one-week miracle.