Analyze Jakobi Meyers's matchup for week 9
The Jaguars have been a slot-receiver buffet, yet Meyers’ routes, targets and TD equity have cratered amid Las Vegas’ Ashton Jeanty–centric run surge, leaving him a low-floor WR4 whose zero-score streak is unlikely to end in Week 9.
Jacksonville enters Week 9 ranked 27th in pass defense (245.7 yds/gm) and has already allowed 17 WR touchdowns—tied for most in the league—while surrendering 174.8 WR receiving yards per contest and three 100-yard wide-out games. Meyers primarily works from the slot, where the Jags have been especially charitable, and the matchup sets up as a plus on paper for a player who torched his old Patriots team for 8-97 in the opener. The problem is usage: since Week 4 the Raiders have morphed into the league’s most run-heavy attack, trimming Meyers’ routes, targets and air-yard share while rookie Brock Bowers siphons red-zone looks.
After an 8-97 revenge game in Week 1, Meyers has averaged 3.4 PPR pts over his last three (12-101-0) and has yet to find the end zone on 33 targets, including 10 inside the 20.
The Raiders’ philosophical pivot has gutted Meyers’ fantasy stability. His route rate has dipped from 88% in September to 68% the last four weeks as Las Vegas leans on league-leading rusher Ashton Jeanty and condensed play-action concepts. With no touchdowns through eight games and a 20% red-zone target share that ranks fourth on his own team, Meyers’ weekly ceiling is essentially capped at 8-10 PPR points—fine in 16-team leagues, useless in standard 12-team lineups. Jacksonville’s secondary is exploitable, but they’ve tightened since the bye (two WR TDs allowed in last three games) and will bracket the slot when the opponent lacks perimeter threats. Add in Gardner Minshew’s bottom-five intended-air-yards rate and Meyers profiles as a 4-5 catch, 45-55 yard floor play with only a modest 25-30% chance of scoring. Unless you’re scraping the barrel in a 14-team league or deeper, leave him on the bench and chase upside elsewhere.