Analyze Jake Ferguson's matchup for week 9
After a shocking zero-catch Week 8, Ferguson draws a Cardinals defense allowing the 4th-most TE yards and 15.8 fantasy points per game to the position—fire him up as a top-5 tight end with 18-22 PPR upside.
Arizona has bled 417 yards to tight ends on 55 targets (25th in pass defense) and given up seven different TE touchdowns, making them the league’s premier get-right matchup. Dallas is a 7.5-point home favorite on Monday night, so positive game script should keep Ferguson—second among all TEs with 59 targets—heavily involved in scoring territory.
Ferguson was the fantasy TE4 (8.7 PPG) with six TDs in a four-game streak before a stunning goose egg in Denver; volume remains elite with only one sub-5-catch game all year.
The Cardinals’ linebacker corps has struggled all season against athletic tight ends, ranking bottom-third in both yards and touchdowns allowed to the position. Ferguson’s 6'5" frame and red-zone rapport with Dak Prescott—six scores in four weeks before last week’s aberration—sets up perfectly against a defense that has yet to allow multiple TDs to the same player but has conceded seven distinct tight end touchdowns. Expect Kellen Moore to feature Ferguson early and often on the national stage, especially after the entire passing game was blanked by Denver. Historically, Ferguson has produced in primetime, and the Cowboys will be motivated to erase the 44-point embarrassment. With target volume that trails only Trey McBride on the season, Ferguson offers both a high floor and ceiling: even a modest 6-65-1 line cashes as a top-five week at a thin position. The matchup, game script, and narrative all align for a spike week—lock him into lineups and don’t look back.