Analyze J K Dobbins's matchup for week 9
Dobbins has scored once in his last five games, averages under 10 PPG in that span, and now runs into the NFL’s fifth-stingiest run defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all year; the lack of touchdowns, minimal passing-game work, and tough matchup make him a clear bench.
Houston enters Week 9 giving up only 88.4 rushing yards and 17.2 fantasy points per game to backs, permitting a league-low seven rushing TDs and zero 100-yard rushers. Dobbins, meanwhile, has one touchdown in five weeks and just five receptions for 18 yards over that stretch, so he’ll need pure rushing efficiency and a score to return starter value—something the Texans have made a habit of preventing.
After opening 2025 at 11.3 FPPG, Dobbins has fallen to 8.0 PPG over his last three with zero touchdowns and only three catches, signaling a steep drop in both usage and spike-week probability.
The underlying numbers paint a bleak picture. Dobbins’ 5.2 YPC over the past five games looks solid, but it hasn’t translated to fantasy production because the Ravens have capped him at 14–16 carries and virtually no targets. Without goal-line work (he’s seen only two carries inside the five during the skid), his weekly floor is the 4-point clunker he posted against the Jets. Houston’s disciplined front seven, anchored by run-stuffing LBs and a safety corps that flies downhill, has held every opponent under 100 team rushing yards since Week 2. They allow just 3.85 YPC and have given up only seven rushing scores on 131 attempts, so even if Dobbins keeps his per-carry average, the lack of red-zone conversions caps his ceiling.
Game-script risk is another factor. Baltimore is a slight road favorite, but if they fall behind early, Dobbins’ 0.8 targets per game this season can’t save him in PPR formats. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has shown he’d rather lean on Lamar Jackson’s legs or quick perimeter passes than check to Dobbins on passing downs, meaning negative game-script effectively benches the RB for fantasy purposes. With Gus Edwards also stealing goal-line work and Justice Hill mixing in on obvious passing downs, Dobbins needs perfect script—positive game flow, 15+ carries, and a touchdown—to crack 12 fantasy points, and Houston has made that combination nearly impossible for opposing backs.
Finally, the schedule doesn’t offer immediate relief. After Houston, Dobbins still faces Cleveland (Week 10) and Cincinnati (Week 11), two more top-10 run defenses, before a bye. Until he recaptures passing-down usage or Baltimore commits to him inside the 10, he profiles as a touchdown-or-bust RB2 in a stretch where touchdowns are the one thing Houston refuses to surrender. Bench him this week and consider him a matchup-dependent flex at best until the touchdowns return.