Analyze Emeka Egbuka's matchup for week 9
After a 2-week bye to rest his hamstring, the rookie’s usage remains elite (27.6% target share) while the Patriots rank bottom-third vs WRs and have given up 4 TDs to the position. Expect a bounce-back WR2 day with WR1 upside.
New England has allowed 20.0 fantasy PPG to WRs, the sixth-most, and have surrendered four TDs through four games. Their slot coverage has been especially soft, making this the perfect matchup for Egbuka to recapture his early-season form.
Volume stayed elite (61 targets, 27.6% share) but production collapsed after a hamstring injury—7.8 PPG in the last three contests vs 18 PPG in the first five.
Egbuka’s rookie year has been a tale of two halves. In Weeks 1-5 he was a league-winner, posting five scores and sitting as the fantasy WR5. A hamstring tweak in Week 6 changed everything: since returning, he’s averaged 6.4 PPR PPG on a sub-50% catch rate. The bye offered two weeks of rest, giving him a realistic shot at regaining the burst that made him Baker Mayfield’s favorite option. With Mike Evans out for the year, Egbuka is now Tampa’s de-facto alpha, and the Patriots have been extremely generous to wide receivers, especially in the slot where he runs 68% of his routes. New England’s secondary is banged up, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs and three straight games of 200-plus yards to the position. Expect a 6-8 catch, 85-100-yard stat line with a TD and 20-plus PPR points—exactly the ceiling that made him a top-25 receiver before the injury.