Analyze Elic Ayomanor's matchup for week 9
Ayomanor’s every-down role (94% snaps, team-high unrealized air yards) keeps him on the dynasty radar, but a bottom-five Titans passing attack and a middling Chargers secondary that still limits WR fantasy points make him a sit in standard-sized leagues.
The Chargers grade out as an average-at-best WR matchup—beatable by big-bodied contested-catch specialists, which fits Ayomanor’s 6'2" profile. Los Angeles has allowed multiple 15+ PPR days to WRs of similar size, and their Cover-3 tendency leaves the sideline 50-50 balls in play. The problem is Tennessee’s offense: rookie QB Cam Ward ranks 31st in yards per attempt, the line is 27th in pressure rate allowed, and only three teams throw fewer red-zone passes per game. Ayomanor will run roughly 35–38 routes, but the probability of condensed, efficient targets remains low.
Over the last four weeks he owns a 26% first-read target share (7th among rookies) and has seen 8+ targets in three straight, yet he’s turned that into just 9.6 PPR PPG thanks to a 52% catchable target rate and zero touchdowns inside the 20.
Volume is the lifeblood of fantasy relevance, and Ayomanor has it in spades: 94% snap share, aDOT of 13.8 yards, and a 28% air-yard market share that dwarfs any other Titan. That usage puts him on the same workload tier as mid-range WR3s, but the conversion rate is ghastly—Tennessee is last in passing success rate, and only the Panthers average fewer completions of 20+ yards per game. Even if the Chargers’ secondary is exploitable, the Titans’ implied total (18.5 points) caps the ceiling; history shows that rookie wideouts in sub-20-point team implied totals average 8.2 PPR points with a 14% hit rate for top-24 weekly finishes. The other hidden drag is game script: if the Chargers build a multi-score lead (L.A. is favored by 6.5), Tennessee becomes run-heavy to protect Ward, historically dropping back 8–10 fewer times in negative scripts. Add in Ayomanor’s 17% target-per-route rate when trailing versus 24% when within one score, and the blowout risk further depresses projection. In 12-team redraft you can’t chase 8-target paper when the median outcome is 3-40-0. In 14-team or dynasty formats, the every-down role keeps him rostered because a second-half chemistry spike with Ward could catapult him into weekly WR3 territory, but Week 9 is not that week. Bench him, monitor the Titans’ pass rate over the next two games, and pounce only if Vegas starts posting implied totals north of 21.