Analyze Dk Metcalf's matchup for week 9
Metcalf is scorching-hot with TDs in four straight, draws a Colts secondary down two healthy outside corners, and has red-zone trust from Aaron Rodgers—lock him into every lineup as a high-floor, top-5 ceiling WR.
Indianapolis has allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to outside WRs while ranking 9th-easiest for the position overall. Their top cover man, Kenny Moore II, is playing through a shoulder issue and was limited to 62% of snaps last week, forcing backups into one-on-one situations. The Colts’ single-high tendencies leave corners on islands, ideal for Metcalf’s 6'4" frame and elite contested-catch profile.
Four consecutive games with a touchdown, 20% target share (28% in the red zone) since Week 6, and average depth of target up from 8.5 to 16+ air yards as Pittsburgh unleashes him downfield.
Since the Week 5 bye, Metcalf has flipped his early-season doldrums into WR1 production, posting a 24-333-4 line on 28 targets while commanding back-shoulder and go-routes at a 16-plus-yard aDOT. Rodgers’ trust is evident: Metcalf has handled seven-plus looks every week and owns the league’s second-best back-shoulder completion rate (7-of-9, 3 TDs). Against a Colts secondary surrendering 15.9 yards per catch and eight scores to outside receivers, he projects for 6-8 grabs, 90-110 yards, and another end-zone visit. The only path to failure is double-high safety looks, yet that would open George Pickens underneath and the Pittsburgh run game, so Indianapolis is unlikely to sell out. Expect another top-12 weekly finish and fire up Metcalf as a confident, league-winning start in all formats.