Analyze Devonta Smith's matchup for week 9
Smith enters the bye on a heater (24-367-2 the last three weeks) and projects as a high-floor WR2 with WR1 spike weeks the rest of the way; fire him up in Week 10 regardless of A.J. Brown’s status.
The Eagles are idle in Week 9, so Smith is an automatic bench, but that’s a blessing in disguise—the extra rest should keep the momentum from his career-best 11-183-1 line in Minnesota alive. When Philadelphia returns in Week 10, Smith draws a Green Bay secondary that has quietly allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to outside WRs and will be without top corner Jaire Alexander (shoulder) for at least one more week. Even if Alexander returns, Smith has already shown he can torch both man and zone, posting an 80 % catch rate and 10.1 Y/T on the season.
Over the last three games Smith has averaged 8.7 targets, 122.3 yards and 0.67 TDs while playing 92 % of the snaps; his 29 % target rate when A.J. Brown missed Week 8 confirms he can carry a volume spike.
Smith’s 2025 breakout has been brewing under the surface for weeks. His route-running was always elite, but the difference lately is usage: over the last three games the Eagles have lined him up in the slot on 38 % of his snaps, creating free releases against nickel and linebacker coverage that have turned into chunk plays. The chemistry with Jalen Hurts is now undeniable—Hurts is posting a 126.4 passer rating when targeting Smith, the highest mark for any Eagles WR since 2020. The underlying metrics support sustainability: Smith ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.67) and fourth in separation rate versus man coverage (4.1 yards). Even if A.J. Brown returns in Week 10, the Packers’ secondary is a get-right spot. Green Bay has allowed 15.4 yards per completion to outside receivers this year (fourth-worst) and uses single-high safety looks at the seventh-highest rate, giving Smith plenty of one-on-one opportunities on double-moves and deep comebacks. The Monday-night stage also plays into Philadelphia’s hands; since 2021 the Eagles are 7-1 on MNF and have averaged 32 pass attempts in those games, well above their seasonal norm. Expect 8-10 targets, 90-110 yards and a 40 % chance of a touchdown, numbers that play as a locked-in WR2 with top-12 upside in a shootout environment at Lambeau.