Analyze Derrick Henry's matchup for week 9
After a 169-yard Week 1 explosion, Henry has cooled off, averaging 72.9 yards per game since, but Miami’s 28th-ranked run D giving up 145 yds/gm plus 10 20-plus-yard runs creates a bounce-back spot for the King.
Miami’s run defense is the league’s softest: 28th in rush yards allowed (145 per game), 10 explosive runs surrendered, and a league-worst 59% first-half success rate vs. passes. Thursday’s calm Miami night sets up perfect conditions for Henry’s physical style, and Baltimore’s 7.5-point spread signals a run-heavy script.
Vintage Week 1 (169 yds, 2 TD) followed by six games of 75 or fewer rushing yards in five of them, plus two lost fumbles in his last three contests; volume stays high (22 expected carries) but efficiency dipped from 2024’s 113 ypg to 72.9 ypg.
The 31-year-old’s early-season tape shows his power is intact—he ripped off 9.4 yards per carry versus Buffalo—but defensive adjustments have bottled him up. Miami’s front seven, however, lacks gap integrity: linebackers over-pursue, tackles miss at the second level, and safeties arrive late, a recipe for Henry’s downhill style. Expect Baltimore to ride him early; even if Lamar Jackson’s hamstring limits him, the Ravens’ offensive line should create double-team lanes against a porous interior. The fumbles are noise—he lost only one in the prior two seasons—so regression toward his career sure-handedness is likely. Projected 22 carries against a defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry should push him comfortably past 100 yards and into the end zone, restoring RB1 confidence down the stretch of the fantasy regular season.