Analyze Deebo Samuel's matchup for week 9
Deebo Samuel has averaged only 6.1 fantasy points in his last three games, hit a season-low 1.2 last week, and draws a Seahawks defense that has allowed just two 100-yard receivers all year; the QB uncertainty and reduced target share push him into bench territory for Week 9.
Seattle's pass defense ranks 23rd in yards per game (230.1) but clamps down on splash plays, surrendering only 11 TD passes and never more than one to a single receiver; the Commanders are 3.5-point home underdogs with Jayden Daniels questionable, likely forcing a conservative script that limits Samuel’s already shrinking target share.
Over the last five games Samuel has logged 23-205-2 on 31 targets, with a career-low YAC per catch and a 1-catch, 1-yard clunker last week dropping him to 8.7 ppg on the season.
The once-dominant “weapon” is now a situational role player. His snap share and target share have dipped behind Terry McLaurin, and OC Kliff Kingsbury has shifted to more 11-personnel looks that leave Samuel running intermediate crossers instead of schemed touches in space. Seattle corners Coby Bryant and Devon Witherspoon have been most vulnerable to slot-heavy receivers, but Samuel is aligning outside on 62% of snaps since Week 5, where he’ll see man coverage from Tariq Woolen and press looks from Witherspoon. The Seahawks’ Cover-3 shell keeps everything underneath, which nullifies his post-catch creativity; they’ve allowed the 8th-fewest YAC per reception. Add in Daniels’ ankle issue—he’s averaging 2.2 seconds to throw when healthy—and Washington’s implied 18-point total, and Samuel’s ceiling is capped at a modest PPR floor. The data says he needs 8-9 targets to clear 15 fantasy points; he’s seen 6 or fewer in five straight. Until usage rebounds or the scheme funnels him manufactured touches, treat him as a low-ceiling WR4 rather than the boom-bust WR2 of old.