Analyze De Von Achane's matchup for week 9
Even as 7.5-point dogs on Thursday night, Achane’s 63 % carry share, 4.6 catches per game over his last five, and Baltimore’s league-worst 10 runs of 20-plus yards allowed keep him a locked-in RB1 with 14-18 PPR-point upside.
The Ravens’ run defense ranks just 23rd (128.9 ypg, 5.00 adj. YPC to RBs) and has already coughed up ten 20-plus-yard runs—perfect for Achane’s 4.34 speed. The concern is game script: Miami is projected for only a 38.8 % run rate and 59 total plays if they fall behind early. Still, Achane’s evolved workhorse role (17.3 FPPG last three weeks) and 4.6 receptions per game give him a rock-solid floor plus ceiling in a spot where big plays are available.
RB5 overall (14.9 ppg) thanks to 107-539-5 rushing, 37-235 receiving and 7 TDs; 63 % carry share (up from 46 % in ’24) and 3.65 yards-after-contact per attempt (84th percentile) show he’s no longer just a satellite back.
Miami’s offensive line is dead-last in pass-protection grade, so the simplest path to staying on schedule is feeding their most explosive player. Baltimore’s nickel and dime packages have struggled with angle-tackling all year—missed tackles are up 18 % since Week 5—and Achane’s 11.3 % breakaway rate is second only to Saquon Barkley. Even if the Dolphins trail, McDaniel has still called designed swing passes and middle-split option routes for Achane in hurry-up sets, giving him 5-6 manufactured touches that don’t depend on rushing volume. Finally, Thursday-night games historically produce 5 % more offensive plays from scrimmage because defenses are limited in exotic pressures; that slight uptick in snaps keeps Achane’s 15-touch floor intact and raises his 20-point ceiling in a matchup begging for explosives.