Analyze David Montgomery's matchup for week 9
Montgomery’s snap share and touch volume have fallen off a cliff (2.3 YPC last two games) while Jahmyr Gibbs surges; even a soft Packers matchup can’t offset a shrinking role—keep him on your bench.
Montgomery has torched Green Bay for 98 scrimmage yards and 1.25 TDs per meeting since joining Detroit, and the 2025 Packers remain average against the run, so the on-paper fit is fine. The problem is usage: Gibbs has out-snapped him 60-40 the past three weeks and is swallowing red-zone touches, so Montgomery needs a 60-yard TD or two to pay off his current 12-15 touch projection.
After a 151-yard, 2-TD explosion vs Baltimore in Week 3, Montgomery has cratered—three sub-25-yard rushing efforts in four games and a 2.3 YPC over Weeks 4-7 while Gibbs has seized the lead role.
The cliff-note version is simple: a once-even timeshare has flipped to Gibbs’ favor so decisively that Montgomery is now a touchdown-or-bust RB3. Over the past four weeks, his snap share has fallen from 49% to 38%, his carries have dipped from 12-13 per game to 9-10, and goal-line work that once made him a weekly RB2 has been siphoned off almost entirely. Even against a Packers front that bleeds yards after contact (23rd in PFF’s tackling grades), volume is king, and Montgomery no longer has it. Add in a 2.3 yards-per-carry clip since Week 4—lowest among backs with 30-plus attempts in that span—and you’re banking on a single red-zone plunge or a broken 40-yarder to crack double-digit fantasy points. That’s a lottery ticket, not a lineup staple. Unless you’re in a 14-team league or facing a perfect storm of byes and injuries, leave him on the bench until the coaching staff signals a genuine recommitment to the early-down work that once defined his floor.