Analyze Daniel Jones's matchup for week 9
Daniel Jones has been reborn in Indianapolis, completing 71 % of his passes with a 105.9 rating and multiple TDs in four straight games; a banged-up Steelers secondary (25th vs pass, 71 % red-zone TD rate) plus run-focused game script sets up another efficient, top-12 QB week.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense ranks 25th (245 yds/gm) and just lost starting S DeShon Elliott and DT Daniel Ekuale, while their 28th-ranked run defense (149.5 yds/gm) will force extra bodies in the box to slow Jonathan Taylor. That combo creates play-action layups for Jones, who has thrived on limited volume (≤34 att in each of the last four) and should remain efficient as 6.5-point road favorites.
Four consecutive games with 100-plus passer rating and multiple passing TDs plus four rushing TDs on the year; 71 % completion rate and 8.4 YPA are career highs by wide margins.
The transformation has been stunning. After six seasons of sub-par accuracy and 6.5 YPA in New York, Jones is operating Shane Steichen’s offense with poise, leveraging league-best play-action rate created by Jonathan Taylor’s dominance. His 10:3 TD:INT ratio and 105.9 rating aren’t fluky—he’s 4th in big-time throw % and 3rd in turnover-worthy play %, indicating sustainable high-end efficiency. The Steelers’ depleted back seven surrenders the 6th-highest EPA per dropback over the last month; with Elliott out, deep-middle windows that Jones has exploited all year (three 40-plus-yard completions in the past two games) stay open. Expect another 250-plus-yard, two-score day even on 30 attempts, with 20-30 rushing yards and a 50-50 shot at a goal-line sneak providing the ceiling. Volume is the only question, but efficiency plus matchup outweighs it—he’s a locked-in QB1.