Analyze Dalton Kincaid's matchup for week 9
Kincaid’s role has grown each week; Buffalo’s pass-heavy scheme faces a defense that has leaked yards to TEs in recent games, making him a top-12 play with TE1 ceiling
The Bills draw a matchup against a defense that ranks 22nd in TE fantasy points allowed, surrendering 12.7 yards per reception to the position. Buffalo uses 12-personnel at the 6th-highest rate, and Kincaid has run 73% of routes over the last three weeks, outpacing Dawson Knox. Expect a fast indoor track (dome) and a 26-point implied total that favors pass-first scripts, giving Kincaid a 5–7 target floor and red-zone upside in a spread attack that isolates linebackers on option routes over the middle.
Kincaid’s snap share has risen every week (48% → 78%) and he has averaged 8.7 PPR PPG over the last month, ranking TE13 in target share (18%) and TE6 in yards per route (2.11) during that span.
Weather is neutral (indoor), the opponent’s top safety is questionable with a hamstring issue, and Vegas expects 52 total points. All arrows up. He’s a locked-in TE1 with top-five upside if Knox sits or the game stays competitive into the fourth quarter. If you’ve streamed TE all year, plug him in confidently and move on to other roster dilemmas.