Analyze Dak Prescott's matchup for week 9
After a 6.6-point clunker in Denver, Prescott returns home on Monday night to face a Cardinals pass defense that ranks 25th in yards per game and has already coughed up multiple TDs twice; volume and game script point to 250-plus yards and 2–3 scores, cementing him as a locked-in QB1.
Arizona allows 234.9 passing yards per game and has given up 2+ TD passes in two separate contests; with Kyler Murray keeping the game close and Dallas’ own defense struggling, Prescott should throw 35-plus times in a likely shootout.
A season-long 22.3-point average over five weeks before last week’s 6.6-point disaster; the two picks in Denver look like a matchup-driven outlier rather than a new pattern.
Prescott’s floor game in Denver was the exception, not the rule—he still sits comfortably inside the top-5 fantasy QBs thanks to a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his other five outings. The Cardinals’ secondary has been burnable all year, ranking 25th in yards per attempt and 24th in passer rating allowed, and they’ve already surrendered 18 completions of 25-plus yards. With Dallas fielding one of the league’s worst defenses, the Cowboys will remain pass-heavy throughout, protecting Prescott’s volume even if they build a lead. Historically, Prescott averages 22.8 fantasy points at home under the lights and has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his last 11 prime-time starts. Expect 250–270 yards, 2–3 passing scores, and a handful of rushing yards that push him comfortably past 20 fantasy points, re-establishing his MVP candidacy and rewarding managers who plug him in as a top-seven quarterback this week.