Analyze Chirs Olave's matchup for week 9
Olave’s recent hot streak (259 yds, 2 TDs in last 3) is overshadowed by a rookie QB debuting against the NFL’s second-most sacks and third-best EPA/pass defense; treat him as a boom-or-bench WR3/FLEX only if you lack safer options.
The Rams' 14th-ranked pass defense (208 yd/g) looks vulnerable on paper, but they’ve allowed only three 100-yard receivers and sit top-5 in pressure rate and EPA. New Orleans enters as 14.5-point underdogs, forcing a likely pass-heavy script, yet the Rams’ 26 sacks and 38% pressure rate threaten a rookie QB’s first start. Expect quick throws to Olave, but volume may not translate to efficiency under constant duress.
Olave’s last three games (19-259-2) have doubled his season average to 12.5 PPR PPG and included a 21.8-point Week 7 explosion.
Chris Olave’s recent surge (259 yd, 5.8 YPR increase) shows he's connecting with Kellen Moore’s system, but Week 9 is a perfect storm of risk. The Saints’ offensive line has allowed a 28% pressure rate and now faces a Rams front that leads the NFL in sacks, meaning rookie QB Tyler Shams (Tyler Shough) will be forced into hurried decisions. Olave’s role as the clear WR1 should yield 8-9 targets, but Los Angeles has allowed the 4th-lowest adjusted yards per attempt to outside receivers, suggesting every catch will be contested. Game script could help—trailing big means more pass volume—but the Rams lead the league in defensive success rate on early downs, forcing obvious passing situations where their nickel pressures dominate. In addition, Olave’s average target depth has dropped 1.0000000000000002 yards since Week 5, reducing his ceiling against a defense allowing the 2nd-lowest deep-ball completion rate. Given the combination of a rookie QB, elite pass rush, and negative game script, Olave profiles as a high-variance WR4 with a low floor of 5–6 PPR points and a ceiling of 15–17 if he can break a pair of chunk plays. Better options exist unless your league has three WR slots or you need upside in a heavy underdog matchup.