Analyze Caleb Williams's matchup for week 9
Cincinnati’s league-worst QB defense (23.4 FPPG, 17 TDs allowed) gives the struggling but talented rookie a perfect get-right stage—fire him up as a low-end QB1.
The Bengals have been a fantasy gold mine for quarterbacks, surrendering 23.4 points per game and multiple passing scores to seven different starters. Chicago’s retooled line (only 12 sacks allowed) and full complement of pass-catchers should keep Williams clean while Cincinnati’s 32nd-ranked DVOA secondary continues to hemorrhage big plays.
Over his last three games Williams has averaged 12.1 fantasy points with a 2:4 TD-INT ratio, completing just 61.9% of throws and ranking 33rd in accuracy among qualifiers.
Cincinnati’s defensive ineptitude creates a near-perfect storm for a breakout. They’re last in defensive DVOA, 30th per PFF grading, and just let a previously punchless Jets offense drop 39 points. Williams has moved the ball efficiently the past two weeks (6.0 yards per play vs. Baltimore) but stalled in the red zone; against a Bengals unit that’s allowed 17 passing TDs and three-TID games to multiple quarterbacks, those drives should finish in the end zone rather than as field goals. With Rome Odunze coming off a 114-yard career day, DJ Moore sporting zero drops, and D’Andre Swift keeping fronts honest, Williams finally has the supporting cast and protection (12 sacks all year) to exploit a secondary that can’t cover or tackle. Expect 275-300 yards, 2-3 scores, and a low-end QB1 finish—start him with confidence across all formats.