Analyze Brian Thomas Jr's matchup for week 9
Brian Thomas Jr. has underwhelmed all year, but a 23-target stretch and a Raiders defense that’s allowed 10 different WR TDs sets up the perfect get-right spot—fire him up as a high-upside WR3/flex.
Las Vegas enters Week 9 ranked 20th against the pass (225 yds/gm) and has already surrendered 100-yard games to multiple outside receivers. Their perimeter coverage has been especially forgiving to big-bodied wideouts, and with Jacksonville favored by a field goal, positive game script should keep Trevor Lawrence throwing.
WR37 on the season with only 7.2 PPG, yet he’s commanded 23 looks over the last three weeks; the volume keeps his floor afloat while positive regression in the touchdown column is overdue.
The box-score ugliness masks steady opportunity—23 targets in three games proves the Jaguars are still designing offense for Thomas. Las Vegas has allowed a league-high-tying 10 different receivers to score, and their outside corners have given up 15.3 YPR when targeted 15+ yards downfield. With Lawrence rediscovering rhythm (17+ fantasy points in three straight), Thomas’s 50% air-yards share makes him the most likely beneficiary of a secondary that’s hemorrhaging big plays. Expect a 6-75-1 type of line that finally pushes him into double-digit fantasy points for the first time since Week 3.